/a/, Tonegawa is offering you a chance to win 20 million yen. Three cards are face down on the table. One Emperor and two Citizens. If you pick the Emperor you win. You pick one card. Tonegawa now has to flip over one citizen and offer you a choice to switch your choice to the other remaining card. Do you switch?

I punch a mirror in mad desperation.

no, because a man doesn't change his mind

I believe in the heart of the cards.

Yes, I switch. If I switch I have a 2/3 chance of winning, and if I keep the one I chose I only have a 1/3 chance of winning.

You didn't specify any consquences, so I assume there aren't any. So, fuck yeah. Nothing to lose, I have a 50% chance at getting 20 million yen. But, I don't get a chance to cry manly tears.

The answer is yes. This is so old. I can't remember the logic though.

Yes.

zawa...zawa

No, one of the two cards is a Emperor, and you already picked one, so it's a 50/50 chance any. No point in switching.

Imagine that the set of Monty Hall's game show Let's Make a Deal has three closed doors. Behind one of these doors is a car; behind the other two are goats. The contestant does not know where the car is, but Monty Hall does. The contestant picks a door and Monty opens one of the remaining doors, one he knows doesn't hide the car. If the contestant has already chosen the correct door, Monty is equally likely to open either of the two remaining doors.

>>10012233 No, >>10012146 is right. It seems counterintuitive but there is a real, mathematical reason for it. It's an old logic puzzle, I forget what it's actually called.

We will assume that there is a winning door and that the two remaining doors, A and B, both have goats behind them. There are three options: 1. The contestant first chooses the door with the car behind it. She is then shown either door A or door B, which reveals a goat. If she changes her choice of doors, she loses. If she stays with her original choice, she wins. 2. The contestant first chooses door A. She is then shown door B, which has a goat behind it. If she switches to the remaining door, she wins the car. Otherwise, she loses. 3. The contestant first chooses door B. She is then is shown door A, which has a goat behind it. If she switches to the remaining door, she wins the car. Otherwise, she loses.

>>10012280 Wrong.

M/a/th

/a/, Tonegawa is offering you a chance to win 20 million yen. 100 cards are face down on the table. One Emperor and 99 Citizens. If you pick the Emperor you win. You pick one card. Tonegawa now has to flip over 98 citizens and offer you a choice to switch your choice to the other remaining card. Do you switch?

>>10012325 What if there were 1,000 doors? You would have a 1/1,000 chance of picking the correct door. If Monty opens 998 doors, all of them with goats behind them, the door that you chose first will still have a 1/1,000 chance of being the one that conceals the car, but the other remaining door will have a 999/1,000 probability of being the door that is concealing the car. Here switching sounds like a pretty good idea.

>>10012283 >>10012265 Reminds me of that story about the lady and the tiger. I always hated that story. The end is like getting Gainax'd but worse because instead of animating the story with a crappy budget they just dropped the project entirely and said to the viewers, "why don't YOU tell me what happened."

If I want to play the numbers, I switch

>>10012355 explain the story

>>10012384 First, everyone needs to sit in the magic circle.

>>10012354 Wouldn't both be 50%?

>>10012435 5/10

>>10012403 What about a hyperboloid?

I cut off my ear and then switch.

http://youtube.com/watch?v=P9WFKmLK0dc

>>10012384 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lady,_or_the_Tiger%3F

>>10012505 What a bitch.

I make this face, rendering the outcome irrelevant.

Wouldn't switch. I know probability wise, it'd be best, but this is Tonegawa we're talking about. He'll give you the chance to switch because HE KNOWS you already picked the Emperor in the beginning.

>>10012569 What!? She'd been a bitch to send him to the tiger!

Since Tonegawa is cheating, I'd first go to the bathroom and rip my ear off. Then I'd probably pass out.

>>10012672 He has to let you switch no matter what.

>>10012384 You've never heard this one? http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Lady_and_the_Tiger

>>10012789

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem Complete solution and explanation.

so did the princess tell him to choose the tiger or the woman?

>>10012960 The Tiger, see >>10012569

>>10012989 but the story doesn't have an ending so how do you know

Switch, /a/.

>>10013220 Depends on you. If you believe in the purity of the Princess (read:Humanity)then the woman comes out. Of course this works the other way around.

>>10013393 either way she can't have him so wouldn't it be best to wish him happiness as well instead of letting him suffer?

>>10013431 Depends if she (lol: Everyone) is a bitch (lol; essentially evil.)