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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Rt0wOyCCAI


What do you guys think about this?

No matter what flawed flowery excuses he tries to make up in the end I think this will severely hurt the careers of many 3d artists. Are we going to become obsolete for the most part?
Is the number of artists per project going to go down?
>>
being an artist is going to become obsolete. however, doing the technical shit involved in art (building plugins, software, pipelines, AI, etc) will never become obsolete.

it's compounded by the fact that everybody in this field believes they will get a job, even if they are good.
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your concern is negligible.

there will always be demand for 3D artists, if realistic style don't work for you move to hand painted textures.
and you simply can't replace the convenience of having a high poly model optimized in various degrees of topology. the new mass effect had photogrammy models for faces and they are missing proper ambient occlusion and hair.

what really kills freelancers and other artists are major outsource studious. not that i have anything against them but they have full production pipelines in their companies and that's something a single artist couldn't achieve
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>>559882
Christ, he couldn't even wear a suit?
Disgusting.
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>>559882
this is sad.
half of the fun of 3d is the sheer amount of effort that goes into it. being able to appreciate the amount of work that someone put into something adds immense value to this medium.

pulled pic related from the comments section. Instantly regretted scrolling down because these people are fucking idiots.
>i dont want to put in the effort required to learn how to make something great, i'd rather just skip it all and do the "interesting stuff!!" XD!
fuck off.

If everyone's allowed to do amazing shit for nothing, nothing will be special anymore.

>>559896
No one dresses up for GDC. It would've been very out of place to wear a suit.
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>>559901
>nothing will be special anymore

Wrong. What was once special will be average, and new levels of special will be reached.
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>>559901
>Man, i hope some software does all the puddles and pimples for 5 bucks in 5 minutes, so i can work on more interesting stuff.

Not sure I agree with that, maybe adding detail to an environment or a character's face to try and make it believable is what I find interesting. Trying to tell a story through those mediums to the player is what makes doing this stuff by hand interesting in the first place.

Maybe a computer does do it way better than me, fair enough. But then, what is interesting at the end of the day? Pushing the button to see what comes out? The involvement is completely gone and the process is all done for you, there is nothing interesting about it anymore.
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>>559896
A lot of developers don't. Even at my workplace, which had a business casual dresscode, many people dressed casually with jeans and t-shirts, and the occasionally cargo shorts even.

That's what you faggots get for falling for the realism meme.
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Its one thing to advance the tools that artists use to sculpt and paint the models so that most of the technical limitations shit doesnt get in the way anymore. And its another thing to just scan shit and leave the artists without a job.

Personally the whole thing that I love about games and animations is that everything in there is a craetion of some artist and the coding wizards that make things possible. The characters exist there and nowhere else.

If all we start to see are Hollywood actors being scanned instead of original creations that defeats the whole purpose. Good graphics stop being a result of technical advances and the effort of talented artists and start becoming just scan data, with minor tweaks here and there. It kills the magic.
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>>559882
>to tell you the truth, I cant fucking wait.

You cant fucking wait to be jobless? cool story bro
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>>559939
>art
>career
pick one, faggot. Also, grow the fuck up.
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>>559911
im totally okay with it.
99% of games/movies fail to make any significant profits anyway. mostly because art expanse is the first thing that's being cut. when they automate programming too programmers will be out of work as well.
you don't do business with selling a rushed, automated product, because no one is gonna buy it
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>>559905

new levels of special? how? This gets rid of the artists. Scarce things are special. Things that take effort are special.

Bunch of scanned assets and copy pasted Hollywood characters are the antithesis of special.
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>>559941
poor bait.
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>>559944
>Scarce things are special
Being born with a birth defect isnt special, its a curse
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>>559946

what are special needs.

adjective
adjective: special

1.
better, greater, or otherwise different from what is usual.

Special doesnt necessarily mean something is positive, but in the context of high level artwork it is. You wont pay the same for an original painting vs one of its copies.
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>>559948
>You wont pay the same for an original painting vs one of its copies.
literally noone can tell an original vs a copy unless they have an electron microscope.
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/3/ wont care because most people here are autistic hacks that will never even land a job, let alone worry about losing one.
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>>559954
t. NEET
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>>559882
GDC is a shit event for shit speculations by shut-in looking shit heads. It's a bunch of narrowed minded "profashionals" trying to sell thier world view on where things are going. They confuse thier anecdotal shit for some crystal ball.
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>>559964
t. student
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>>559966
t.t.
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I don't really care if computers will be able to produce photoreal games in like 5 seconds. I still like playing stuff like Diablo 2 and diep.io and Baldur's Gate and none of that is photoreal but it's just as fun to me as newer games. I don't know how many people still play Diablo 2 or Baldur's Gate, but I know diep.io had somewhere around 10,000. If you can get that many people to play your game, then you can probably make a living off it.

My main worry is that in 20 years if we have all this technology, then there will be mass unemployment across multiple sectors of the economy. If you can automate game production then surely you can use that same technology to automate all sorts of different things not even related to games. Then it doesn't matter how lean your team is, because nobody will have a job and the money to buy your games anyways.
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>>560001
Also what about when they can create germ line gene modifications to human embryo's? I forgot about that...Then they can create super creative and smart 3D modellers and game developers that will make everyone else with normal DNA look terrible in comparison.. ok my speculation is getting stupid :P
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>>560001
tried to collab many times, tried to get into projects or just do some gigs for money but eventually found out that people only care about the money and what they can get away with which is sickening.
if you want to make money off a creative medium then make it good, make it special.
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>>559944
Dude automation is not exactly a new occurence especially in cgi.
I personally come from an architecture background and guess what, people have been saying the same shit you are saying.

But it turns out that the more is automated or made easier through more advanced tools, the more amazing stuff you can make. And, even better, more people can make amazing stuff because the tools are more accessible.
So, like I said, the average quality increases as what was once special becomes average, and new levels of special are made possible by technological advances.

More automation means simply that you can spend more resources on the actually creative parts of creating.
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>>560020
if you wanted to be creative you would be getting a masters in engineering and working with Elon to get to and colonize mars, not making mario 912 or zelda 651
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>>560021
That is totally subjective you dumb monkey.
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>>560020
there is a difference between adding new tools that help you accomplish something than taking a picture of something and then it turns into finished work
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>>560021
But I am in stem and actually did a mars project last semester..

>>560048
Then create something that can't be photographed because it doesn't exist.
What is creative about recreating reality anyway?
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>>560088
>What is creative about recreating reality anyway?
making it from scratch
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>>559882
Photorealism is such a meme. It literally can be churned out by computers, there is no point to it. Anyone who does it should seriously consider if what they are doing is even artistic. This guy seems like he just wants to place props in 3D environments and call it a day, ok good for you but other people that like turning their own ideas into environments.
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>>560097
you are obviously not a 3D modeler.
you will never know the thrill of re-creating an historic artifact or rendering a busy city.
seems like you take joy in watching people fail to do what they love because of technology
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>>560098
Recreating stuff is a monkey's job. None of the classic artists got great by recreating older masterpieces, sure they got paid a little and learned essential skills, but they carved a spot in history by making style defining masterpieces of their own.

Saying that recreating something is a thrill means you should go over to China and be a another underpaid peasant whose job is just to reproduce old art for middle-class westerners who think they're upper-class.
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>>560100
who cares? modeling realistic things helps you to boost your skills tremendously mostly because there is so much reference and it forces you into unpleasant position of re-creating stuff that CNC machines do.
also the extra stuff like raindrops,wear,dust,dirt,grime,scratches. there is a limit to how procedural and photo copied it can be. you can add your own touches and make it count.
if you refer creative 3D to something like handpainted textures then sure you might be right. but soon enough you will have procedural cartoon materials too and its not long before something similiar to photogrammy will be able to make 3D models from paper print. and when that's happen's some asshole like you will show up and berate people for trying to make good art.
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>>560100
Why not both?

CAD drawings are vastly superior to hand drawings in terms of detail and accuracy. Doesn't mean you can't appreciate a good hand drawing.
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>>560100

bullshit. if davinci had the perfect tracing machine he would have used it don't lie to yourself. you're just pissed because you put so much effort into a specific skillset and and it irks you that other people didn't sweat bullets as hard as you.
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>>560020
OP here, look man you, and people like you just dont get it.

I agree that getting better tools to help you in the creative process is a good thing, but this is not that; it's literally scanning people and generating models that way. No artist needed to create the characters anymore.

And dont give me that shit about modeling stuff that cant be scanned because creating a character is something you cant scan from real life.
You are inventing a human being that does not exist anywhere else, this is the magic and the thing a realistic modeler strives for.

But if the corporate people get wind that its 1000x faster and cheaper to just scan some rando from the street or a hollywood star this KILLS everything creative about the character. It's just an actor.
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>>560594
>But if the corporate people get wind that its 1000x faster and cheaper to just scan some rando

it looks like fucking shit. it copies light directly from the image. it means all the models you get from it are max payne esque.
but knowing the industry up close i would say companies would rather have this than hire character artists, costs involved of course
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>>560594
Please tell me where you can find aliens, orcs, mechs, spaceship or whatever the fuck to scan
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>>560695
Or stylized models/animations of any kind, thats stuff you can neither track nor scan
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>>560695
>Please tell me where you can find aliens, orcs,
My previous gfs?
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>>559882
I feel like creative jobs have the most security when it comes to robots automating everything.

That along with people who know how to control the robots to prevent uprising.

You want a flambouant gay guy that looks like terry crews but acts like andy dick. The robot comes back with some automated rigged model that is photorealistic to terry crews and animated from hours and hours of andy dick footage online.

You tell the robot good job son but I need the andy dick to be a bit more exxadurated and silly, a bit like ace ventura.

The robot has no fucking idea what you want.

A person can at least converse with the director which parts he likes and doesn't.

I dont know if I explained that good but basically I don't think robots can adjust their work to critisism like a human can.
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>>560597
Oh look it's a moron who doesn't know about that omni-directional lighting setup they have to capture photo textures of actors' skin.
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>>560699
It's like with photography.
People back in the day probably went 'fuck this nobody is gonna do art anymore when you can just take pictures'.
Well, classical art became less popular but the technology opened up countless avenues of new art never seen before.

>>560723
Heh
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>>560744
they capture the hair and the shadows too, which looks like shit
and to top it all off, they add teeth which don't even feel like part of the character.
only a jewish industry like the 3d industry would go back to crisis 1 level of graphics just to lower costs
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totally automated smart AI UVunwrapping couldnt come soon enough desu

i hate that shit

when I wake up and know most of my day is going to be spend looking at UVs i just want to jump infront of a fucking bus
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>>560695
Im not talking about any of those. I'm talking about human characters. Created human characters from the imagination. That is whats gonna be replaced with a bunch of actors.
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>>560756
yeah full agree on anything. Gimme that AI UVunwrapping.
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>>560695
traditional sculptors, makeup artists, puppet makers, etc. how do you think movies used these things before the advent of 3d cgi?
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>>560738
why can't they implement "silly" and "exaggerated" sliders? or sliders for whatever percieved traits people would ask for? if they can train an AI to compose works in the style of famous dead classical composers that are convincing enough to fool people who have studied said music, they can automate the shit you're talking about. it's just a matter of when. they probably just managed to crack music sooner because when you reduce it down to notes on a page (and ignore the subtle touches that human performance imbues in it) it's highly mathematical and predictable.
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>>560882
im not just talking about the model though

you couldn't tell an ai to make this model of andy dick that moves like andy dick move like an exadurated version of andy dick

it wouldnt understand
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>>560760
So?
Horses got replaced by cars and everyones standard of living improved.

>>560881
Ok so you're gonna create an orc puppet and use it for videogames?
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>>560897
Why not?

Andy Dicks movement is x
Tell AI to move x+1
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yci5FuI1ovk
i forgot about this video.

animators are so ridiculously fucked. holy shit.
why did i just waste a year of my life learning to do something that isn't even going to exist in 10 years.
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>>560910
>So?

SO? Really? Is that your answer?
If you cant see what we lose if that is replaced by actors you are creatively bankrupt.
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>>561001
So you can't actually explain it?
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>>560971
I could see that replacing or speeding up the process of making basic walk/run cycles, but things with more personality are still going to be done mostly by hand. Pic sort of related, good luck trying to make a computer do a specific Jojo pose in a cool stylish way through machine learning.

These animations also look too perfect, and while you could argue that someone could just program something to add x amount of imperfections a person would still be needed to tweak things in that case.

If anything I think this software would be great for animators, it would take a lot of tedium out of making things like walk cycles.
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>>560021
Or a degree in industrial design, which is art+engineering. I'm currently employed in the field designing the plush skins for animatronic toys cuz right now I'm more efficiant than the current 3D-to-sewing pattern software. Once the software catches up, though, I have training to switch to building the 3D models the software converts.

My friends who do more traditional modeling didn't lose their jobs with the advent of cheap 3D printing. They learned CAD software and how to model for specific rapid prototyping processes. Now they get things that would have taken days done in hours, and things that would have been impossible done as part of their routine.

For artists in the game design field, not having to model real things should give them more time to work on things that don't/can't exist irl.
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>>559882
when production will become cheaper, there will be more projects in works.
people with more artistic vision will be valuable than "all quads" technical people.
zbrush is doing very vey big thin, in drawing artists in 3d. DESU
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>>559882
Good. I fucking hate modeling. I want a computer to take care of it for me. I fucking hate texturing. I want a computer to take care of it for me. I fucking hate animating. I want a computer to take care of it for me. If I can just get to a point where I direct a string of plugins with some general notions and then spend all my time tweaking / polishing the results, that sounds like a brilliant future for me as an artist. It might look like this someday in the future, though not now.
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>>560971
That video was posted over 3 years ago and I don't see even a cheap shitty Maya plugin yet. How's that 10 year horizon looking for you?

Show me the goods or gtfo with this SIGGRAPH crap.
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>>561005
If ME:A is any indication of how little fucks AAA studios give about animation, I could see tech like this being used straight up without any animator input whatsoever.
Kinda like how they're already using cheap shitty mocap and not cleaning it up at all. It cuts down on man-hours and employees.

>>561070
people already do physics based animations in games.
It's obviously not quite there yet, hence the "10 years" prediction, but we aren't too far away from fully procedurally generated animations if you take into account how quickly technology advances. 10 years is not an unreasonable prediction.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WFKGWfdG3bU

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WuwSKCahTWU
Exanima does it quite well.

There's also at least one dev in /agdg/ that's implimenting physics based walk cycles and animations into their game.
A fucking -~HOBBYIST~- is doing this already, and you're telling me we won't have this 10 years from now?
Lmao, ok.
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>>560971
In 10 years you still can make good money.
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>>561002

If you cant get there on your own you have a completely different view of art and there is nothing I can say to change your mind.
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If you are scared of automation, you will be a technician and not an artist. You will finally have the right job title for a button pusher.
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>>561077
good animation still needs to be tweaked by a human.

and those vids you posted looks like garbage.

learn 2D animation and tell me a computer can replace a human.

faggot.
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>>561395
they used to say that cars wouldnt be able to drive themselves. Now almost all human drivers will be replaced in the next 5 years.

Makes ya think.
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>>561395
no shit it looks like garbage, that's why i said 10 years from now. it's like you already forgot what you're trying to argue.
the important thing is there's an interest in it and people are going to constantly be improving on it.
also 2d has nothing to do with 3d being replaced. what is wrong with you? are you just doing this for attention?
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>>560754
Delighting is trivial, and hair can be added later.
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>>561396
Driving is not a creative field.
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>>561362

>camera takes photographs, portrait
>people who made painting portraits suddenly no longer artists.

>artists model and invent humans in 3d
>scanner scans real life people and artists become obsolete

according to you, artists suddenly become technicians.

Your logic is retarded, please end your life.
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>>562243
This.
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>>561395
>good animation still needs to be tweaked by a human.

>and those vids you posted looks like garbage.

Look this one. Still not perfect but clearly step above.

https://twitter.com/danlowlows/status/858754840419196929
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>>560001
>in 20 years if we have all this technology, then there will be mass unemployment across multiple sectors of the economy.
Mate this has been going on ever since the industrial revolution, driverless cars are the next big step in removing humans from the workplace. Its why so many people are pushing for basic income because they know eventually all labor will be automated
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3:50

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=suo_aUTUpps

>all of this will be automated
>why even live?

What am I doing here, learning how to model and texture, if this technology exists? Wasting my time?




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